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bitcoin, halving

04.05.21 Technical Analysis BTC / USD – Is the Star Going Down?

U Yesterday’s analysis on Bitcoin (BTC) We focused more on higher timeframes, so today we will be looking at insider days as well. Anyway, as you may have noticed, the dominance of Bitcoin has fallen below 50%, which is something that all of us should take as a notice to end the current bullish trend. It has made it clear many times that the entire market is mainly driven by Bitcoin and to some extent also altcoins with a high ceiling.

Therefore, if dominance begins to decline significantly, then BTC will simply weaken us. We can actually consider this dominance as a kind of indicator of the health of the entire cryptocurrency market. If the dominance is declining sharply, this is a signal to us that the end is approaching. You can even record that the entire market is now primarily driven by Ethereum. Once again, there is a certain similarity to early 2017/2018. Therefore, protect your positions and leave nothing to chance.

BTC dominance

As mentioned in the introduction, Bitcoin’s dominance has dropped significantly below the set range, which is around 50%. Personally, I also assumed a breakdown, since the chart has been in oversold territory for a long time, but there is still strength to the recovery. So if the support wasn’t strong enough, we should be number two in a row, but it starts out at as much as 40%.

However, dominance can theoretically pump at any time, even without strong support, because it’s even on the daily RSI. Quadruple bull spacing. On the one hand, there is a possibility that altcoins could make another big wave, but on the other hand, they can get a downloader at any moment. This is just a typical situation where a person is at a crossroads and has to decide what to do next.

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Current position at 1D TF BTC / USD


Now let’s continue with the daily chart, where we can notice that the reversal from the upper bound of the drawn bar did not succeed much. From experience a daily close came into shape shooting star, It is a completely bearish candle. It should be noted that the $ 58,000 to $ 62,000 USD range is an excellent opportunity for shorts. Therefore, we can assume that enough bears would like to pack here.

The stupidity that the rejection happened on the spot Fibonacci level 61.8%, as bears are starting to gain ground here. In fact, at this level, by default, there is a negative reaction and then it is determined whether the bulls have sufficient forces to push. If they have, logically, it’s all about the ATH test.

So this is a bad sign that we haven’t tested the resistance range starting at around $ 60K. However, the tentative reaction to rejection is not threatening at all and we are currently testing the EMA 55 from above, where we can see that there has been a weaker positive reaction. If we dip below the $ 52,500 S / R range, we’d definitely test the April 25 low.

And when it dips, $ 42,000 is the next stop. Other than that, trading volumes are still dropping steadily so we may soon see more dynamic movement in the market. What or what Less volume, Team Higher likelihood, That the fairy wheels will spin correctly soon.


Based on the RSI, we can say that the bearish momentum has weakened and a test of the 70 pips limit is on the horizon. On the MACD indicator, the momentum is positive but weak.

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Current position at 4H TF BTC / USD

Now let’s move the chart to the 4 hour chart, where the growing structure was in the form of a normal channel. We came very close to the psychological level of $ 60K, which means having an insurmountable wall for a relatively long time. If you remember, for about four weeks it was strange to watch the market react at this level.

In any case, the price managed to surpass the S / R level of $ 58,189 for a while, but then there was a totally unexpected hesitation and a flow from the expansion channel. Too bad It looked so promising. The decline continued until the S / R level of $ 54,530, which was also according to the volume profile Control point.

So the reaction is justified and the shopper tries to rebound a little. But we don’t have any impulsive reflection in the chart, and volumes are nothing. On the contrary, sales pressure increased gradually during this short decline. However, he wasn’t from terno either. Now we have to wait to see if the market attempts a second breakout of the S / R level of $ 58,189, or if we continue declining.


The RSI has created a larger bearish divergence that can be considered as applicable. However, the difference appeared very early on, which is not quite auspicious either. However, the values ​​fell below 50 points. As for MACD, it generates a spurious signal one by one.

To conclude

Given the sharply declining BTC dominance, it is clear that we are fast approaching the finals. However, no one can accurately estimate the entire top of the uptrend, but unfortunately this does not work. It might last for a few weeks, but it might collapse like a house of cards tomorrow. Therefore, it is extremely important to perform the calculation in an environment where the financial risk is huge. And don’t be surprised if the market thrives in us.

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Attention: There is no data in the article which is an investment board. Before you invest, do your research and analysis, you are always trading at your own risk only. Individual risk considerations are highly recommended by the team!