A Week in Stock Markets: Fifth Growth Week in Europe, Unfortunately in Prague – Commentary

Macro data was significantly better this week ie lower industrial producer inflation. Surprisingly strong data arrived from China in the form of Q1 GDP and today the PMIs for April were above estimates, in both Europe and the US, mainly from the services sector.

Prague Stock Exchange

weekly performance

After three consecutive weeks, the PX (-0.09%, 1,417.04 b.) has weakened slightly this week. The result of the bullish and bearish trading days is 2:3.

I have to start this week with CEZ. And for at least two reasons: First, it’s the most widely circulated name. During the whole week, the turnover in the ČEZ region exceeded 70% of the entire stock exchange. Secondly, it is the biggest title loser of the week. It fell for the first four days this week and corrected at least a small part of those losses as Friday grew. In total, it weakened by 3.91% (1155 CZK) for the week. Last Friday, ČEZ crossed the magic level of 1,200 CZK, and as of Monday, profits have been taken. I just want to remind you that the EEZ shares rose briefly above CZK 1200 last year, when they were pushed to such high levels by political rhetoric on restructuring, and then for about a year from October 2007 to October 2008. That was another flight above this. the level. And the last figure is CEZ’s YTD performance: +50% growth.

And what was the remaining 30% or so of the weekly volume?

Erste (+ 1.92%, 765.60 CZK) and Komerční banka (+ 0.80%, 758.50 CZK) grew. Both companies delighted investors with their fourth straight week of growth. The best performer this week was the insurance company VIG, up +3.77% (620 CZK) and the fifth consecutive week of growth. And we must not forget the weekly +1.23% (CZK 246) Kofola.

In addition to ČEZ, Moneta (-1.06%, CZK 84.30), Colt (-1.02%, CZK 583) and Philip Morris CR (-0.23%, CZK 17,600) weakened. Colt ignored information about the arms order to Ukraine, and Moneta is likely nervous ahead of the quarterly report, which will be published next week (below).

The daily and weekly performance table for indices and stocks is in the appendix.

Prague Stock Exchange

Daily (Friday) performance

Today, the PX index, barring a slight initial decline, is on an upward trajectory, ending at daily highs. It gained +0.66% (1,417.04 b).

ČEZ has become the biggest star in day trading. After four days of decline, today it strengthened by +3.03% (1155 CZK) and returned to the target of 1200 CZK. Without significant news today, VIG (+0.49%, 620 CZK), Colt (+0.34%, 583 CZK), Erste (+0.21%, 765.60 CZK) and Komerční banka (+0, 13%, 758.50 CZK).

Moneta (-0.82%, 84.30 CZK), Kofola (-0.40%, 246 CZK) and Philip Morris CR (-0.11%, 17,600 CZK) were the only ones that fell today.

United States of America

Wide American S&P500 index From Monday to Thursday, it decreased slightly by 0.19% (4129.70b). Today it opened near zero with no clear direction. Throughout the week (shortly after opening on Friday), performance appears to be zero.

Europe

Stoxx Europe 600 index It shows decent volatility today. The tops of the sinusoidal alternate regularly and it looks like the indicator will end on Friday with the right amplitude. Moments before the end of the day’s trading, it rose +0.3%. For the whole week, it could add +0.4%, which means the fifth week of growth in a row.

Important pricing news from the Prague Stock Exchange

Komerční banka: Thursday’s general meeting or shareholders approved a dividend from last year’s profit in the amount of CZK 60.42. The last trading day to qualify for this distribution is Thursday, April 27, 2023, with payouts to begin on May 22, 2023. The dividend is Total Yield +8%. The approval was expected, so no surprises.

What can we expect next week?

On Thursday, April 27, Moneta will report its financial results for the first quarter of ’23. You can read our estimates here https://bit.ly/Moneta_e1Q23. Positive is the high interest rate environment, which, on the other hand, also increases the cost of financing. Adjustments will be made for 1Q22.

On Tuesday, April 25, Moneta holds a public meeting. The shareholders will, among other things, approve the dividend for the last year in the amount of CZK 8 (total yield of about 9.5%).

The last trading day for the right to the dividend shall be Thursday, April 27 (date of release of Q1 2013 results).

The last trading day with a dividend will also be Thursday for Komerční Bank (above). This means that both banks will trade in so-called dividends (without the right to approved dividends) from Friday. The value of the stock should normally decrease by the amount of the dividend on that day.

Erste Group Bank will present its quarterly numbers on Friday.