Anticipation of the run-off in Türkiye’s elections.. and the “king-maker” is required

Pro-government media welcomed the result, with Yeni Safak newspaper reporting that “the people have won,” a reference to Erdoğan’s People’s Alliance, which appears to have won a majority in parliament, which could give Erdoğan a decisive advantage in the presidential run-off.

The head of the Turkish Supreme Electoral Commission, Ahmed Yener, said that after counting 99 percent of the ballot boxes, Erdogan advanced with 49.4 percent of the vote, while Kamal Kilicdaroglu got 44.96 percent, and the participation rate in the elections amounted to 88.8 percent.

The third nationalist candidate, Sinan Ogan, won 5.2 percent of the vote, and analysts said he could play the role of “kingmaker” in the run-off if he decides to support one of them.

Erdogan’s ruling coalition will enter the second round, said Galip Dalay, associate fellow at Chatham House, “with numerical and psychological advantages.”

“It is likely that during the campaign period leading up to the run-off, President Erdogan will focus on (the issue of) stability because he already holds the majority in Parliament,” Dalay added.

What did the “king maker” say about the elections?

After the results appeared, the Turkish presidential candidate, Sinan Ogan, who ranked third in the Turkish elections, said: “The opposition candidate, Kilicdaroglu, did not succeed in convincing the people.”

He added, “I can support Kilicdaroglu in the run-off unless concessions are made to the pro-Kurdish party.”

He continued, “Fighting terrorism and returning refugees are red lines in order to support Erdogan or Kilicdaroglu.”

What did Erdogan say after the results were announced?

“The winner is undoubtedly our country,” Erdogan said in a speech to cheering supporters at the headquarters of the ruling Justice and Development Party in the capital, Ankara, last night.

In the run-up to the elections, the opposition has a feeling that it has had its best chance yet to topple Erdogan, with the support of opinion polls, which showed that he is lagging behind his main rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, but the results indicate that Erdogan and his party have succeeded in mobilizing conservative voters despite the cost of living crisis. .

Kilicdaroglu, representative of the six-party opposition alliance, pledged to win the run-off and accused Erdogan’s party of interfering in counting and announcing the results, calling on his supporters to be patient.

pivotal elections

The election is being watched closely in Europe, Washington and Moscow, as well as across the region, where Erdogan has sought to consolidate his country’s influence while cementing its ties with Russia, straining relations with its traditional ally the United States.

Erdogan is one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s main allies, and his strong performance in the elections may strengthen the Kremlin’s position, but it will likely infuriate US President Joe Biden’s administration and many European leaders, whose relations with Erdogan have been tense.