“Hopes for an end to the lockout are set to rise next month,” the Times reported, summarizing recent developments that have meticulously monitored the spread of the B1.617.2 variant in the UK.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson told parliament on Wednesday evening that his confidence in adhering to the removal plan was growing and that “Indian diversity is not spreading as fast as we previously feared.”
According to the Times, where variation B.1.617.2 dominates, the hospital curve is “relatively flat” and preliminary models estimate that this variant is “slightly more variable” than the so-called British variant B.1.1. .7. The release of the lockout scheduled for June 21 should not put the NHS healthcare system at risk of being overburdened.
Johnson said he was still “cautiously optimistic,” but said the reason for the optimism was greater now than last Thursday. “I know there are still concerns about new varieties. But now we can see that there is nothing to suggest that we should opt out of the decay plan,” he added.
“A Million Dollar Question”
Nothing is certain yet, but the potential for a 50% faster variation compared to B.1.1.7 is currently at the ceiling of the range estimated by scientific advisers. Last week, 50% considered it “realistic”, so mostly optional.
According to government health adviser Jonathan Van-Tom, the exact portability ratio of this option is a “million dollar question,” but under cautious optimism, it now looks like 20-30%. The researchers also believe that the rate of spread of the new variant in many species may be due to the dense population there and the large number of interbreeding families.
Further reliable estimates should be within a week
According to the Times, government sources warn that this is not a definitive decision and that everything could change. Some more ratings are expected again in a week. According to Health Minister Matt Hankok, it is too early to say whether the June 21 decision on the lockout will come as planned, and a final decision will not be made until June 14.
Nevertheless, some things in government and its advisers now feel more positive about emotions and rhetoric than they did a few days ago. For example, earlier in the week, Hancock said the variation could spread among the unknown “like wildfire”.
Currently, the UK has detected a total of 3,000 cases of B1.617.2 across the UK, with 2,323 cases reported on Monday. Some scientists, such as Andrew Howard of the University College London, who is a member of the SAGE government’s advisory commission, warn that it is still possible for Britain to be at the “beginning of the third wave” triggered by Indian diversity.
The situation is very uncertain, especially since the curve of new infections is so low that these are all very early estimates. But the whole world is watching them, because no country is more prone to the spread of diversity than Britain. The only reliable way to find out if the variant is spreading significantly faster than others is to observe the spread in real population using hierarchy.