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Dealing with a changing world in the future |  Atif Ghamry

Dealing with a changing world in the future | Atif Ghamry

Atif Ghamry

The view of the future is not a new phenomenon, there are schools that specialize in future studies, whose view goes beyond the limits of the current reality, to see what is to come, whether it is possible, or even excluded from the perspective of the existing international conditions, and in order to set for themselves, visions of future policies that are ready to deal With any emergency situation she is coming to, and so as not to be surprised by what she did not prepare herself for.

The risks of preparing for the future and developing its performance, to catch up with new ideas, lie in innovation in the fields of science, human life, and follow up on the emergence of unexpected risks, even if their features have begun to materialize, such as the repercussions of the climate crisis, and where the question about the future is renewed, to put in front of specialists and scholars ways It is up to them to take it and go into its details.

This topic may have been previously confined to the aspect of political thought and strategy making, since the causes of the global conflict between the United States and Russia have changed, the front lines have moved towards China, and it has entered new fields of conflict in which policy experts are not alone in managing it, but rather the experiences and ideas of others. in economics, technology, space wars, social sciences, and psychology.

The current reality is witnessing the storming of the state with challenges from within it, transcending the front line that the state borders were equipped with for those trying to storm it.

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The shift in the international system had entered since mid-1989, a new phase that dominated political and strategic thought in the world. At that time, President George Bush Sr. launched the name of the new international system, in his address to Congress in September 1990, after the fall of the Berlin Wall in December 1989. This was like setting a dividing line between the old system and a new system that some sought to give permanent and stable features based on the stage that followed immediately after America was singled out as the only superpower in the world. It is a situation that has not been able to continue, as they had imagined.

According to the French thinker and writer Eliane Dubius, this approach meant, in the eyes of the West, creating situations aimed at serving its interests first. The best thing for the future is for America to remain the dominant power politically, militarily, economically and culturally. But this concept clashed with the legal element sanctioned by international law and the United Nations, which says that the international system is the product of consensus between peoples and the international powers that represent them, and which balances their interests.

At the same time and in the context of reality, this concept collided with the emergence of superior capabilities of other countries in economic development, which earned them the elements of influence regionally and internationally, which caused their peoples to regress in their view of the position of America as a center of inspiration in the world, in the face of these peoples gaining a national characteristic to inspire them.

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He did not miss the effects of the information revolution whose waves have rushed since the early nineties to blur not only the line separating the external borders of states and some of them, but what happened from the intrusion of their internal arena, to make the citizen in the state, as if overlooking from the window of his home on what is happening inside other states. This had the effect of deducing from the lives of others ideas, behaviors and traditions that were not from his environment.

Some of them are difficult to control, because they implant in the local environment, especially among the new generation, new ideas and concepts, some of which are anti-traditional, and some of them transmit behaviors that are not characteristic of the national identity of the state.

These meanings are at the heart of the concept of national security, and strategic experts in the West agreed that it is difficult for any country to ensure the protection of its national security, in the absence of a comprehensive and multi-dimensional vision of the future, at the same time that takes into account the national identity of the state, and its fixed values, which It absorbs any changes within and around it to give a degree of flexibility to its strategy, and to provide all tools to prevent risks resulting from future challenges. And all of this is built on very accurate scales of anticipating what might happen, based on indications, even if they are not absolutely certain.

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There are countries that have realized the importance of reading the future, so they established centers that specialize in evaluating any indicators of events that may occur in the future, and then put the results of their studies before the competent authorities in political decision-making in order to prepare themselves to deal with them with well-equipped plans.