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Economist Kovanda warns: The Russian economy appears to be doing well

The West will not only bring the Russian economy to its knees. Economist Lukasz Kovanda thinks he could potentially cut himself off from the world. He will not want rubles in Europe: “It will make Gazprombanka a new ‘central bank’,” he analyzes in a comment on

Economist Kovanda warns: The Russian economy appears to be doing well
Photo: Hans Sembra
He described: Economist Lukasz Kovanda

According to an estimate by the Washington Institute of International Finance, Russia is likely to post a record positive current account balance of $240 billion this year.

“And therefore, the Russian current account surplus for this year will be almost double the previous record. The main reason for this is the record increase in the foreign trade surplus, mainly caused by the significant rise in energy prices, especially gas and oil, in world markets.

However, if the EU is able to significantly insulate itself from Russian energy, the surplus will not be a record and it will seriously hurt economically. So Russia needs the European Union. According to Kovanda, his demand to pay for gas in rubles, therefore, cannot be taken as the last warning against tightening the water taps.

Instead, Moscow is trying to divert gas payments to Gazprombank, a state bank that should be kept away from other possible sanctions in the West.

“So if EU countries now send euros or dollars for gas not to Gazprom as before, but to Gazprompans, they will still be addicted to international markets. They were accepting foreign exchange, exchanging them, sending rubles to Gazprom. Because it is a state bank, Russia will earn one hundred percent From the foreign exchange that Gazprom will earn for gas abroad. From Gazprombanka, if it stays out of the reach of sanctions in most of the West, the Kremlin will be able to make some alternative to the central bank that has imposed sanctions on it. At least with respect to the rest of the world, Gazprombanka can become the official payment agent instead of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation”, concludes Kovanda.

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