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Euler Hermes: The projected GDP in the New World in the fifth year will increase to + 5.1%

Euler Hermes: The projected GDP in the New World in the fifth year will increase to + 5.1%

The global economic recovery is on the right track. Although conditional on the evolution of major prevalence factors, for example, by individual economies, the projected growth of global GDP in 2021 is + 5.1%, with the United States leading a quarter of that number. On the contrary, according to economics, it will be slightly lower due to the gradual adoption of some accommodative economic policies.

Compared to a decrease of 3.6% in 2020, the figure in 2021 and 2022 essentially explains a very broad mix of fiscal and monetary policies. The ability to implement them is the same factor
This, of course, combined with the vaccination rate, determines the rate of economic recovery. The differences are already known
Iva Paluskov, Country Director Euler Hermes R.

The recovery of the global economy will take place in several gears in five cities, and analysts have identified 6 key moments on the path of economic growth that may enter the gradual economic recovery.

1. Click pollen

According to the current vaccination rate, the collective immunity of the United States and the United Kingdom will be achieved in May, while Europe should raise a weak network of its residents during the summer. Thus achieving herd immunity can be expected in Europe and in the fall (Table 1), despite the acceleration of the number of fortified camps (eg France).

2. Excessive household disputes

By the end of 2021, family disputes will continue to cross 40% of the pre-crisis period. In a relatively optimistic landscape, they should benefit from economic growth in Europe
+ 1.5% of GDP and not more than + 3% in the United States. According to estimates, € 163 billion could be reflected in personal consumption in the Eurozone. This figure represents the equivalent of 30% of excess epidemic conflicts. However, for example in the United States, Americans are expected to spend 50% of current disputes this year because two epidemic restrictions and effective financial drivers may boost the court consumer (Table 2).

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3. Devastation progressive support mechanism

Unprecedented fiscal stimulus, currency and up to 20% of GDP helped calm the economic climate for a global value-added tax in 2020. In early 2021, public consensus is taking what is needed to make room for different political horizons. a nap. In this way, the path to financial standardization began, with official targets clearly pointing to the removal of political support this year, although some flexibility in the system was preserved so that credit risk could be borne if needed.

4. The issue of efficiency comes from public sources

Several replacement strategies to support the economic recovery, including a better rebuilding of Biden in the US (potentially 2.3 trillion US dollars), the European Union Next Generation Fund (a temporary recovery facility of 725 billion euros) and our infrastructure is fully implemented1 $ 5 trillion by 2025, in the medium term to support the demand and growth potential of the global economy. However, in this context, their speed will depend on the effectiveness of individual governments and their ability to properly direct redundant conflicts into meaningful projects and private sector support.

5. Slow down the global supply chain

The supply chain will meet the same number of checks as during the height of the epidemic. The slowdown in global trade in the second quarter should push to the brink of a recession. In terms of volume, global trade will reverse this year at + 7.9%, but without the positive impact of 2020, growth will stop at + 5.4%. Accordingly, it is expected to slow down temporarily in the second quarter of the year due to supply chain disruptions: overall, in 2021, these shortcomings could affect global trade growth of -1.7 percentage points. Business activities in services will also be affected by the reopening of the sector, which is often affected by epidemic restrictions and thus continued restrictions on travel between individual country borders.

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6. Doasn nrst inflation

It is possible that the temporary increase in inflation was due to the temporary base effect. As a result, firms’ pricing capacity is likely to remain limited by weak demand dynamics: excessive household disputes and NFC data transmission technology, which slows the pace of income, continues to produce due to capacity utilization and high unemployment, which increases wages below 3%. Thus, we will not respond to a fundamental shift in central bank policy due to lower inflation.