The space threat simulation is organized by the NASA Near-Earth Object Center. This is a five-day event, in which participants will assume a variety of roles – from national governments to space agencies to various organizations that can solve the problem.
Experts must operate with limited information, just as if they were in a real situation. But they receive different clarifications every day. But there are also complications he has to deal with.
The event kicked off Monday, April 26th; Happen on The annual conference of the International Academy of Astronautics on Planetary DefenseOrganized by the United Nations Office for Space Affairs in cooperation with the European Space Agency. Results Provided on the CNEOS website.
This is the seventh exercise of its kind, the event taking place every two years. The latter became famous when, in a simulation, the asteroid bound for Denver managed to deviate from a course that was threatening to destroy the city. Unfortunately, they transformed his face so that instead of Denver, he completely wiped New York from the world.
The asteroid is heading to České Budějovice
The simulation began this year with the introduction of an imaginary threat: “19. In April 2021, astronomers in Hawaii discovered an asteroid called 2021 PDC. The object is 57 million miles away, and its closest approach to Earth will happen on October 20, 2021, in just six months.” Each real day of simulation corresponds to approximately one month of “playtime”.
Participants knew that the probability of collision was originally estimated at 1: 2500. However, this estimate was based on just two days when astronomers were able to observe the object. Information about its size was also very vague, with estimates ranging from 35 to 700 meters.
But on the first day of the simulation, everything changed: the collision risk was set at 1: 100, then even at 1:20.
On the second day of the exercise, more accurate numbers arrived: the probability of a collision with the Earth is 100 percent, and it will happen on October 20, and most likely the object will fall somewhere in Europe or North Africa. However, the size of the asteroid, its configuration or the angle at which it might land, is still not known, so the damage cannot be estimated.