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صندوق النقد يتوقع تحقيق مصر رابع أعلى معدل نمو ضمن الاقتصادات العالمية 2023

The IMF expects Egypt to achieve the fourth highest growth rate among the global economies by 2023

Through its implementation of the economic reform program and the application of balanced fiscal and monetary policies, the Egyptian state was able to deal and adapt to global challenges and crises, and to develop appropriate solutions to contain their negative repercussions and reduce their effects on the Egyptian economy, at a time when efforts to improve the work and investment environment and support productive sectors do not stop. And the expansion of social protection initiatives, so that Egypt became one of the countries that was able to achieve a strong growth rate at a time when global economic growth is slowing, which was reflected in the optimistic view of the major international institutions of the Egyptian economy.

In this regard, the Cabinet’s Media Center published a report that included infographics highlighting the expectations of the International Monetary Fund that Egypt would achieve the fourth highest growth rate among the most important global economies for the year 2023, despite the reduction in growth expectations of most global economies.

The report pointed out that the International Monetary Fund maintained its forecasts for the growth of the Egyptian economy for the year 2021/2222, thus exceeding global growth averages, with a growth rate of 5.9% in July 2022 expectations, which is the same as the Fund’s expectations for the growth rate of the Egyptian economy during the month of April of the same year.

The report mentioned the International Monetary Fund’s expectations for growth rates in July 2022 compared to April 2022, as the Fund reduced its forecast for the global growth rate by 0.4 percentage points, to record 3.2%, compared to 3.6%, as well as lowering its expectations for the growth rate of advanced economies by 0.8 percentage points, to record 2.5 % compared to 3.3%.

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The report completed the Fund’s expectations in July 2022 compared to April 2022, as the Fund reduced its expectations for the growth rate of emerging and developing economies by 0.2 percentage points, to record 3.6%, compared to 3.8%, while reducing its expectations for the growth rate of the Middle East and North Africa region by 0.1 percentage point, to record 4.9% compared to 5%.

The report mentioned the International Monetary Fund’s expectations for growth rates in 2023, where it expected that Egypt would grow at a rate of 4.8%, India would grow by 6.1%, Pakistan would register 3.5%, and Iran would grow by 2%, in 2022/2023.

The report monitored the Fund’s expectations for the growth rates of the most important global economies during 2023, as it is expected to record 5.2% in Indonesia, 5% in the Philippines, 4.7% in Malaysia, 4.6% in China, 4% in Thailand, 3.9% in Kazakhstan, and 3.7 % in Saudi Arabia, 3.5% in Turkey, 3.2% in Nigeria, 3% in Argentina, 2.2% in Australia, and 2.1% in South Korea.

In addition to the above, the Fund expected that the growth rate in Spain and Poland would record 2% during 2023, and that it would record 1.8% in Canada, 1.7% in Japan, 1.4% in South Africa, 1.2% in Mexico, and 1.1% in Brazil, 1% in France, the Netherlands and the United States, 0.8% in Germany, 0.7% in Italy, and 0.5% in the United Kingdom.

In a related context, the Fund expected Russia to record a contraction of 3.5%, given that the selected economies represent nearly 83% of global GDP.

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The report touched on the most prominent comments of the International Monetary Fund on the performance of the Egyptian economy since the beginning of the crisis and how to confront it, pointing to what it said in March 2022 that the measures taken by Egypt are welcome steps due to the expansion of social protection directed to those who deserve it and the application of flexibility in the exchange rate movement in The impact of the crisis on the economy remained.

The report also indicated that the Fund expected in April 2022, a decrease in the high debt ratio of the Egyptian economy in the medium term, based on the success in achieving the high primary surplus, which will reach 2% of GDP.

The Fund also confirmed in April 2022 that it had a very successful experience with Egypt, stressing that Egypt is now taking serious steps to support its financial stability and its continuation in implementing reforms. It also expected that unemployment rates would decrease to 6.9% during 2022 and 2023 compared to 2021, which rates reached Unemployment reached 7.3%.

In July 2022, the International Monetary Fund team, according to the report, thanked the Egyptian state for their frank and constructive discussions, after the IMF team and the Egyptian authorities held fruitful discussions on the economic policies and reforms to be supported during the coming period.

In addition to the above, the Fund emphasized in July 2022 that Egypt and the Fund’s program had achieved the primary goal of maintaining the stability of the economy over the past years, explaining that moving forward there was a need to make decisive progress with deeper reforms to enhance private sector development and improve governance.

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The report reviewed the most prominent comments of the Fund’s report on the crisis economic situation in the world, pointing out that a bleak and more foggy atmosphere on the global economy will witness in 2022, after an initial recovery during 2021, when risks began to materialize on the ground and accompanied by a contraction in global output.

The report pointed to what the Fund said about reducing growth expectations in the major advanced economies in general in 2022 and 2023, as well as raising global inflation expectations following the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis due to high food and energy prices, in addition to its clarification of the high debt rates, as global conditions indicate Debt has reached critical levels in emerging and developing economies.

The Fund also stressed the exacerbation of the global food crisis, especially with the restrictions on exports in many countries and the inflation of most grain prices worldwide, suggesting a slowdown in global trade growth during 2022 and 2023 at a high rate, which reflects the decline in global demand levels and the problems facing global supply chains. .