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The United States is pushing for a global recovery. The International Monetary Fund’s rating is improving, but growing imbalances are worrying

Milano – The ingenuity of the scientific community and the financial support used by large nations allows the International Monetary Fund to raise its ratings of the global economic recovery, starting with the United States, although underlined by the new economic outlook released by the Washington organization Stop Has widened the gap between restructured economies mandated for health reasons and others still suffering. Geeta Gopinath, chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said the launch of the new report could celebrate a stronger economic recovery than the forecast compiled in January, with 0.5 per cent of estimates + 6% globally and + 4.4% (+0.2 points) in 2020, and -3.3 per cent “historic” in 2020. After the contraction.

2021 2022 2021 (difference compared to last view) 2022 (difference compared to recent overview)
World Release 6.0 4.4 +0.5 +0.2
Advanced economies 5.1 3.6 +0.8 +0.5
United States 6.4 3.5 +1.3 +1.0
Euro area 4.4 3.8 +0.2 +0.2
Germany 3.6 3.4 +0.1 +0.3
France 5.8 4.2 +0.3 +0.1
Italy 4.2 3.6 +1.2 +0.0
Spain 6.4 4.7 +0.5 +0.0
Japan 3.3 2.5 +0.2 +0.1
United Kingdom 5.3 5.1 +0.8 +0.1
Canada 5.0 4.7 +1.4

+0.6

Gopinath has long described the fund as “too favorable” to impose a minimum global tax on companies relaunched by Biden and Yellen, but the question remains – the excitement is stagnant, however, the challenges remain open, and the epidemic has not yet been defeated, as shown by the development of epidemics in some countries. “The pace of recovery varies dangerously between countries, and economies are worse off by slow vaccination campaigns, low political support and reliance on tourism.”

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The United States, above all, is driving the progress of the global program, which rose 1.3 percentage points in their forecast and broke the +6 percent limit. With this performance, in the absence of an epidemic, the United States will be the only major economy to surpass GDP by 2022. For China, the WEO estimates that after a 2.3% increase in 2020, GDP will rise to 8.4% in 2021 and 5.6% in 2022.

The difference in the pace of recovery will be difficult to fill in the short term: the International Monetary Fund estimates that 95 million more people will enter poverty in 2020 compared to the Govt forecasts, with the latest improvements reporting years on the basis of exiting the poverty-stricken state of health crisis.

Within countries, other inequalities threaten to erupt: younger and less skilled workers are often the victims of this crisis, especially in developing countries where women are paying high prices. Sixteen trillion dollars in financial support from the states would have been worse, otherwise the economic downturn would have been three times worse. In light of what has been done, the International Monetary Fund encourages states to support measures that meet specific needs, but leave the stimulus to the economy long overdue.

Obviously, uncertainties dominate everything: one way or another. The vaccine campaign can accelerate recovery faster than expected, while variations can affect vaccine immunity and cause sudden setbacks in the economic recovery. What’s more, the fact that the recovery is at different speeds depending on the economic zones casts a shadow over the interconnected financial system: the fact that a starter has come from the growth of US bond yields and that the US can ‘export’ inflation can be very dangerous for the eurozone.

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In light of this recovery at different speeds, the International Monetary Fund is demanding a “designed” approach on the part of governments in implementing stimulus that is generally still considered necessary today. Priority in the first place faces the health challenge, and for this reason everything from vaccines to hospital infrastructure must have cost concessions. Gopinath begins with a genuine appeal when he says, “Internationally, countries must work together to ensure a global vaccine.”

Therefore, the International Monetary Fund calls on the central banks to accommodate, while at the same time recognizing that the normalization of the economy must be accompanied by a gradual withdrawal of pro-labor policies (and, in Italy, there is the thought of preventing layoffs).